Wednesday, January 9, 2008

New Hampshire Results

From: "Brian Menard"
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 09:51:46 -0500

NH is now history (or herstory, depending on which party performance you're analyzing). On to MI, SC, and FL. The big Thompson news today is that FDT apparently wowed the SC GOP with his performance in last night's debate. From a political perspective, I'm thrilled that he's got something positive to keep his campaign going. As an analyst, I'm confused because I thought McCain gave the best answers and was the most "presidential" while Fred - as I commented to Audrey while we watched - had lots of good information delivered in really bad answers.

The other GOP news this morning is that Rudy (or "Rudi" as some localities in FL have printed his name on their ballots, and are refusing to correct it because it will cost them $40,000 to fix...Should we just exempt Florida from participating in presidential contests?) has asked his paid staff to work without pay and vendors to go without payment retroactive to January 1. I seem to recall writing something recently about Rudy/i being strapped for cash. I guess it's even more serious than I thought. He may not survive until the Florida contest that is supposed to launch his campaign. Bad plan for Rudy; good news for IA and NH.

Did you see the "Romney '08" baseball mitts hoisted at his HQ on the night of the NH primary? What would they hold up if he went by Willard? Anyway, MI is do or die for Mitt. Once his campaign dies there, he should hold off any endorsement to keep his VP chances alive with either McCain or Huckabee, whichever gets the nod. And on the subject of GOP-VP options, does anyone else join me in thinking one name that will get bantered around once there is a GOP nominee is Michael Steele? And on the Dem side, if Hillary ends up in the top slot, I still think there's a very good shot of having a Clinton-Obama ticket. Bill Richardson screwed himself out of VP contention with too many irrational proposals coming from someone whose long resume means he should know better. If Obama wins the nomination, Richardson is definitely out because Obama will choose a white man as his running mate (back to Indiana's Evan Bayh, whom I've mentioned previously).

From:"Michael Busick"
Date:Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:29:03 -0800

It's still too early for me to over-analyze yet another example of how this country's media was wrong yet again. :)

Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:23:22 -0800

I don't get to watch "24" regularly, but I got that reference. I am waiting for "Lost" to resume. Check it out, if you haven't. I started in the middle of things, and it was not that hard to follow. So, Richardson is officially out and available for running-mate duty. Obviously had no idea that Willard is Mitt's first name. Gee, Willard or Mitt, take your pick. Don't get what the tension between Kerry and Edwards would be, regardless of not being palsies. To be fair, Edwards does not have the overall party support, not to mention his showing in IA/NH, so it would seem unlikely for Kerry to endorse him. What, no more analysis and insight from my exclusive panel of three? ;-) NH wasn't all that thrilling?

From:"Michael Busick"
Date:Thu, 10 Jan 2008 11:36:43 -0800

Of course, I just read a follow-up headline stating "Kerry snubs Edwards, endorses Obama" so I guess those media guys don't know that ex-running mates don't always have to get along, either :)

Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 14:12:54 -0500

When Edwards announced, he was asked if Kerry would endorse him. He said he did not expect Kerry to endorse him and did not know if he would bother seeking his endorsement. Just a bit of evidence that running mates need not be good chums...It's not just in "24".

----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Busick
Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 1:10 PM
Subject: RE: New Hampshire Results

I just caught a headline on MSN this morning stating that Kerry is going to endorse Obama. Is that anything other than a shot at Edwards?

Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2008 22:58:13 -0800

I thought Obama stole the "Yes We Can" from Bob the Builder. ;-) If you know kids' TV shows, that's a funny joke. You're right, BGA, the "racial dynamic" comment came in reference to Cesar Chavez and upcoming Nevada and South Carolina races. Anyway, I thought it was kind of uncalled for, and the silly Nightline field reporter knew it as soon as it came out of his mouth because he made a weird face. If you missed it, you'll have to take my word for it; it was one of those live TV moments. Is Willard meant for Thompson? 'Cause he's Fred? Fred Willard? Funny.

Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 03:00:00 +0000

And how! Young, I agree with your stand on the media. I heard tonight that Obama got the post grad. over $100k a year income crowd, what? Look, let's focus on the good news. If Willard doesn't get Mich. he's out, whether he knows it, or not. Obama is getting some union support and Hillary might have to cry again, that certainly seemed to work with the women. It just pissed me off. Let's face it, Iowa and New Hampshire are weird states. I believe that Obama will get the Latino vote. His slogan, "Yes We Can" is union/Latino code, remember Chevez? Also, he just picked up the support of a major union in Nevada. Further, I expect that Clinton will lose the Black vote. I expect Obama will bring out the black vote in S. Carolina. What about Edwards? He will need to make up his mind soon, whether to stay in and sink Obama? Or get out and help him. I believe that Edwards is taking votes that would otherwise mostly go to Obama. McCain, comeback kid? My !4*&(7! More like, grandpa turned out the over 60 crowd. Nevertheless, McCain is looking strong and on message-I think, he has a better chance than any of the other Republicans. Can't wait for Super Tuesday. B.

Date:Wed, 9 Jan 2008 17:30:13 -0800 (PST)
From:"Young H. Kim"

I'll send the first salvo again...
First, let me say that the general assessment by the mainstream media on NH results was full of hot air, if not appalling. The numbers say:
1) Hillary won by 3% and garnered same number of delegates as Obama.
2) McCain won by 5% and got three more delegates than Romney.
On top of this, the articles and TV news buffoons are using terms such as "upset", "comeback kid", "shocking", "stunning", and such. I can somewhat accept the comeback aspect for McCain, but Hillary, too? One AP article headlined, "Obama front-runner label brief". Was he really the front-runner after only Iowa? It's amazing how Hillary lost the front-runner label so quickly.
Nightline's lead stooge Terry Moran called Hillary's win "shocking", and even good ol' George S. agreed. Ratings is one thing, but they are obviously being coached to make the race seem WAY more exciting than it really is, or they get bonuses by speaking more sensational words after another. Was it really a surprise to the Obama camp that he didn't finish first in NH? I wouldn't read this as a step back for Obama and still see Hillary as on the defensive.
Moran even dared to call Obama's mood as "cocky" after his win in Iowa. Ridiculous. One ABC reporter in the Obama camp used the term "racial dynamic" off-the-cuff (in reference to Obama focusing on Black and Latino votes in South Carolina and Florida) and gave a sheepish frown-grin hinting that he just had a brain fart. And these guys get paid for doing that. I don't subscribe to basic cable TV, so I don't know what other hyperbole got tossed around in the three-ring circus of CNN, MSNBC and Fox. I'll stick to PBS and NPR, thanks.
The Rep race seems wide open now and definitely a three-elephant race. Huckabee certainly will have problems getting the Northern Yankee votes. Is there still hope for Giuliani and others? What has Rudy got other than mentioning 9/11 every other sentence? And Paul was close behind Rudy as well and ahead of write-ins and Thompson. Does Thompson keep going?
Heard that the traditional NH Dem voters went with Hillary, and the independents went with Obama. Doesn't this mean that Obama has a better chance of grabbing the center and moderates? Is an Obama/Clinton or a Clinton/Obama ticket possible?
Michigan's a bigger chunk of the delegate pie and Florida coming up later, so it should continue to be quite fascinating.

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